关键词: 气候变化, 石油醚提取物, 烤烟, 河南, 影响

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data between 1961 and 2013 from 64 meteorological stations and the data of petroleum ether extract content of the flue-cured tobacco in Henan tobacco growing areas, the variations of climatic factors and the main climatic characteristics that affected the petroleum ether extract content of the flue-cured tobacco in Henan tobacco areas were analyzed using the mathematical statistics. According to the above data, the changes of climatic factors and petroleum ether extract content in the future were explored under the two RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios. The results showed that during the past 53 a, the minimum temperature increased significantly, and daily range of temperature and global radiation decreased markedly in Henan tobacco areas. Most of petroleum ether extract contents in flue-cured tobacco were more than 5%, which was the critical minimum level of high quality tobacco leaveswith the order: upper leaf > middle leaf > lower leaf. There was close correlation between petroleum ether extract content and meteorological factors, which affected those of tobacco leaves at different positions. The obviously positive correlations were obtained between maximum temperature during field period and the petroleum ether extract content of the upper leaves, as well between average temperature during fast growing stage and the petroleum ether extract content of the middle and lower leaves. Under the RCP scenarios, most heat factors and light factors increased in the future, the water factors didnt show obvious variation trends. The petroleum ether extract content of flue-cured tobacco in Henan tobacco areas would be increasing because of the obvious increase of maximum temperature during field period and average temperature during vigorous growth stage under the future climate change, especially under the scenario of RCP8.5.

Key words: climate change, petroleum ether extract, flue-cured tobacco, Henan, effect