Abstract: Based on the meteorological data between 1961 and 2013 from 64 meteorological stations and the data of petroleum ether extract content of the flue-cured tobacco in Henan tobacco growing areas, the variations of climatic factors and the main climatic characteristics that affected the petroleum ether extract content of the flue-cured tobacco in Henan tobacco areas were analyzed using the mathematical statistics. According to the above data, the changes of climatic factors and petroleum ether extract content in the future were explored under the two RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios. The results showed that during the past 53 a, the minimum temperature increased significantly, and daily range of temperature and global radiation decreased markedly in Henan tobacco areas. Most of petroleum ether extract contents in flue-cured tobacco were more than 5%, which was the critical minimum level of high quality tobacco leaveswith the order: upper leaf > middle leaf > lower leaf. There was close correlation between petroleum ether extract content and meteorological factors, which affected those of tobacco leaves at different positions. The obviously positive correlations were obtained between maximum temperature during field period and the petroleum ether extract content of the upper leaves, as well between average temperature during fast growing stage and the petroleum ether extract content of the middle and lower leaves. Under the RCP scenarios, most heat factors and light factors increased in the future, the water factors didnt show obvious variation trends. The petroleum ether extract content of flue-cured tobacco in Henan tobacco areas would be increasing because of the obvious increase of maximum temperature during field period and average temperature during vigorous growth stage under the future climate change, especially under the scenario of RCP8.5.

Key words: climate change, petroleum ether extract, flue-cured tobacco, Henan, effect

摘要： 利用河南烟区1961—2013年64个气象站的气象资料以及烤烟石油醚提取物含量数据，采用数理统计方法，分析烟区气候要素变化特征和石油醚提取物含量状况以及影响石油醚提取物含量的主要气候因子，在此基础上，探讨RCP4.5（representative concentration pathways 4.5）和RCP8.5两种未来气候变化情景下河南烟区气候要素及石油醚提取物含量的可能变化趋势。结果表明，近53 a来，河南烟区最低气温、气温日较差、太阳总辐射均发生显著变化，最低气温以显著上升为主，气温日较差和太阳总辐射显著降低。河南烟区各地烤烟石油醚提取物含量绝大多数高于5%，符合优质烟叶的标准，且上部叶最高，下部叶最低。石油醚提取物含量与气候要素间的关系密切，不同部位烟叶的影响因素有差异；上部叶主导气候因子为大田期最高气温，中、下部叶主导气候因子则是旺长期平均气温，且均呈显著正相关。未来气候变化情景下，绝大多数温热要素和光照因素将有显著上升趋势，降水和湿度因素变化趋势不显著。由于大田期最高气温和旺长期平均气温均高于气候基准期（1981—2010年）平均值且有显著上升趋势，将可能导致烤烟石油醚提取物含量升高，且RCP8.5情景下更明显。

关键词: 气候变化, 石油醚提取物, 烤烟, 河南, 影响