Abstract: In order to reveal the regional characteristics and spatial patterns of dynamic change of wheat in recent years in Jiangsu province, this paper extracted wheat area data of different years in Jiangsu based on remote sensing techniques, and analyzed the regional changes and spatial patterns of wheat area by grid and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that there was a strong regional agglomeration effect on wheat planting area in Jiangsu province from 2011 to 2017, and the agglomeration degree and contiguous planting increased year by year. By 2017, high agglomeration area for wheat planting was centrally distributed in the north of Huaihe River and irrigation canal, low agglomeration area was mainly distributed in the south of the Yangtze River and west of Suzhou. Since 2013, the wheat planting was greatly reduced in southern Jiangsu, especially in Ningzhenyang hilly region. The same trend also occurred in Lixiahe river region of central Jiangsu, but the decreasing degree was more moderate. The wheat area in northern Jiangsu maintained relatively stable, although partially reduced in hilly region of Xuzhou and Lianyungang city. Overall, the wheat area of Jiangsu decreased since 2013, but the spatial pattern suitable for wheat production in Jiangsu took shape. The results provided scientific basis for future cropping structure adjustment and agricultural supply-side structural reform.

Key words: wheat area, remote sensing, spatial pattern, spatial autocorrelation analysis, dynamic change

摘要： 为了揭示江苏省小麦空间分布动态变化以及地域格局特征，采用遥感、格网和Morans Ⅰ指数等方法对江苏省近年小麦生产地域空间分布格局以及变化进行分析。结果表明：2011年、2013年、2015年和2017年江苏省小麦种植面积都存在很强的地域聚集效应，且聚集和连片程度逐年增强。至2017年，小麦面积高聚集区集中分布在淮河和灌溉总渠以北，徐州以东，低密度区主要分布在长江以南，苏州以西； 2013年以来，江苏省苏南地区大幅度压縮了小麦生产规模，苏中地区较大幅度削减了小麦生产规模，苏北小麦生产规模基本保持稳定；苏南地区小麦调减范围主要集中在宁镇扬丘陵区，苏中调减的是里下河养殖区，苏北调减的是徐州、连云港丘陵山区。2013年以来江苏省小麦面积呈现下降趋势，已经基本形成了适宜江苏小麦生产的地域空间格局。上述结果可为种植业结构调整和供给侧结构性改革提供科学依据。

关键词: 小麦, 遥感, 空间格局, 空间自相关, 动态变化