华北平原耕地生产安全评价及生产潜力提升分区

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2024.0272

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

华北平原是我国粮食安全的压舱石，高强度的农业生产使得其耕地生产安全状况受到高度关注。为评价其耕地生产安全性，提升生产潜力，从立地、土壤、气候和生产条件4个方面选取15个指标进行耕地生产安全状况评价，并基于限制性指数模型进行耕地生产安全限制因子分析。结果表明，华北平原耕地生产状况整体良好，生产安全综合指数为0.55~0.93，根据该指数可将其划分为5个级别，其中，一级（0.85~0.93）和二级（0.80~0.85）耕地分别占研究区耕地总面积的21.79%和57.14%，主要分布在研究区中东部；三级（0.75~0.80）耕地占研究区耕地面积的10.73%；四级（0.70~0.75）和五级（0.55~0.70）耕地分别占4.83%和5.51%，主要分布在研究区西部和西北部的山区。华北平原耕地生产安全综合限制程度以中度（71.22%）和轻度（23.19%）为主，多数区域限制因子可改良性强，改良空间大；无限制（0.12%）和重度限制（5.47%）的占比很低。依据耕地生产潜力提升能力可将研究区划分为持续提升区、重点提升区、保护提升区、限制提升区，各类面积占比分别为49.42%、15.39%、28.65%、6.54%，对于不同生产潜力提升区可开展分期管护工作，本着耕地开发利用与生态保护并重的原则开展差别化整治。

关键词: 耕地生产安全, 综合评价模型, 限制性指数模型, 华北平原

Abstract:

The north China plain is the cornerstone of our country’s food security. Intensive agricultural production has led to heightened concern over the safety of its cultivated land. To evaluate the safety of cultivated land production and enhance its production potential， 15 indicators were selected from 4 aspects： location， soil， climate and production conditions for assessing the safety of cultivated land production. And the analysis of limiting factors for cultivated land production safety were conducted based on a restrictive index model. The results showed that the overall production status of cultivated land in the north China plain was good， with the comprehensive index of production safety ranging from 0.55 to 0.93. It was classified into 5 levels. Level 1 （0.85~0.93） and Level 2 （0.80~0.85） together occupied 21.79% and 57.14% of the total cultivated land area in the study area， respectively， distributed in the eastern part of the study area. Level 3 （0.75~0.80） covered 10.73% of the cultivated land area in the study area. Level 4 （0.70~0.75） and Level 5 （0.55~0.70） accounted for 4.83% and 5.51%， respectively， distributed in mountainous areas in the west and northwest. The overall degree of comprehensive restriction on cultivated land production safety in the north China plain was mainly moderate （71.22%） and slight （23.19%）. Most regions had factors that could be significantly improved， with large improvement potential. Areas without restrictions （0.12%） and severely restricted areas （5.47%） had very low proportions. The zoning for enhancing cultivated land production potential could be divided into continuously enhancing areas， key enhancement areas， protected enhancement areas and restricted enhancement areas， accounting for 49.42%， 15.39%， 28.65% and 6.54%， respectively. Different stages of management could be carried out for areas with different production potential enhancement， adhere to the principle of balancing cultivated land development and ecological conservation through differentiated rectification measures.

Key words: farmland production safety, comprehensive evaluation model, restrictive index model, north China plain

中图分类号:

S341.1

刘华岩, 申严岩, 郑佳乐, 张路豪, 杨香云, 齐雁冰. 华北平原耕地生产安全评价及生产潜力提升分区[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2025, 27(10): 180-192.

Huayan LIU, Yanyan SHEN, Jiale ZHENG, Luhao ZHANG, Xiangyun YANG, Yanbing QI. Safety Assessment of Cultivated Land Production and Zoning of Potential Productivity Improvement in North China Plain[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2025, 27(10): 180-192.

图/表 12

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条件层 Condition layer	因子层 Factor layer	因子层权重 Weight of factor layer	综合权重 Composite weight
土壤条件 Soil condition （0.38）	土壤质地 Soil texture	0.29	0.11
	土壤有机质 Soil organic matter	0.32	0.12
	土壤pH Soil pH	0.22	0.09
	土壤全氮量 Total soil nitrogen content	0.17	0.06
立地条件 Site condition （0.21）	高程 Elevation	0.39	0.08
	坡度 Slope	0.29	0.06
	坡向 Aspect	0.32	0.07
气候条件 Climatic condition （0.20）	年均气温 Annual average temperature	0.24	0.05
	年均降水量 Annual average precipitation	0.25	0.05
	年均日照时数 Annual average sunshine duration	0.32	0.06
	年均地表温度 Annual average surface temperature	0.19	0.04
生产条件 Production condition （0.21）	灌溉保证率 Irrigation assurance rate	0.30	0.07
	地均农业机械总动力 Total agricultural machinery power per unit area	0.21	0.04
	地均化肥施用量 Fertilizer application rate per unit area	0.24	0.05
	路网密度 Road network density	0.25	0.05

条件层 Condition layer	因子层 Factor layer	因子层权重 Weight of factor layer	综合权重 Composite weight
土壤条件 Soil condition （0.38）	土壤质地 Soil texture	0.29	0.11
	土壤有机质 Soil organic matter	0.32	0.12
	土壤pH Soil pH	0.22	0.09
	土壤全氮量 Total soil nitrogen content	0.17	0.06
立地条件 Site condition （0.21）	高程 Elevation	0.39	0.08
	坡度 Slope	0.29	0.06
	坡向 Aspect	0.32	0.07
气候条件 Climatic condition （0.20）	年均气温 Annual average temperature	0.24	0.05
	年均降水量 Annual average precipitation	0.25	0.05
	年均日照时数 Annual average sunshine duration	0.32	0.06
	年均地表温度 Annual average surface temperature	0.19	0.04
生产条件 Production condition （0.21）	灌溉保证率 Irrigation assurance rate	0.30	0.07
	地均农业机械总动力 Total agricultural machinery power per unit area	0.21	0.04
	地均化肥施用量 Fertilizer application rate per unit area	0.24	0.05
	路网密度 Road network density	0.25	0.05

等级 Grade	指标 Index	北京 Beijing	天津 Tianjin	河北 Hebei	山东 Shandong	河南 Henan	总计 Total
极高度安全 Extremely high safety	面积Area/hm²	3.73	217 310.97	598 604.49	3 600 761.99	2 243 237.67	6 659 918.85
极高度安全 Extremely high safety	占比Percentage/%	0.00	0.71	1.96	11.78	7.34	21.79
高度安全 High safety	面积Area/hm²	15 602.87	367 303.94	4 778 525.86	5 958 930.07	6 345 405.07	17 465 767.81
高度安全 High safety	占比Percentage/%	0.05	1.20	15.63	19.49	20.76	57.14
中度安全 Moderate safety	面积Area/hm²	296 504.21	12 061.09	1 224 709.02	557 569.97	1 187 952.26	3 278 796.55
中度安全 Moderate safety	占比Percentage/%	0.97	0.04	4.01	1.82	3.89	10.73
低度安全 Low safety	面积Area/hm²	60 562.19	0.46	832 167.66	24 879.90	560 151.52	1 477 761.73
低度安全 Low safety	占比Percentage/%	0.20	0.00	2.72	0.08	1.83	4.83
极低度安全 Very low safety	面积Area/hm²	756.63	0.00	1 618 208.43	0.09	66 650.85	1 685 616.00
极低度安全 Very low safety	占比Percentage/%	0.00	0.00	5.29	0.00	0.22	5.51

等级 Grade	指标 Index	北京 Beijing	天津 Tianjin	河北 Hebei	山东 Shandong	河南 Henan	总计 Total
极高度安全 Extremely high safety	面积Area/hm²	3.73	217 310.97	598 604.49	3 600 761.99	2 243 237.67	6 659 918.85
极高度安全 Extremely high safety	占比Percentage/%	0.00	0.71	1.96	11.78	7.34	21.79
高度安全 High safety	面积Area/hm²	15 602.87	367 303.94	4 778 525.86	5 958 930.07	6 345 405.07	17 465 767.81
高度安全 High safety	占比Percentage/%	0.05	1.20	15.63	19.49	20.76	57.14
中度安全 Moderate safety	面积Area/hm²	296 504.21	12 061.09	1 224 709.02	557 569.97	1 187 952.26	3 278 796.55
中度安全 Moderate safety	占比Percentage/%	0.97	0.04	4.01	1.82	3.89	10.73
低度安全 Low safety	面积Area/hm²	60 562.19	0.46	832 167.66	24 879.90	560 151.52	1 477 761.73
低度安全 Low safety	占比Percentage/%	0.20	0.00	2.72	0.08	1.83	4.83
极低度安全 Very low safety	面积Area/hm²	756.63	0.00	1 618 208.43	0.09	66 650.85	1 685 616.00
极低度安全 Very low safety	占比Percentage/%	0.00	0.00	5.29	0.00	0.22	5.51

类型 Type	指标 Index	北京 Beijing	天津 Tianjin	河北 Hebei	山东 Shandong	河南 Henan	总计 Total
无限制 Unlimited	面积Area/hm²	0.00	0.54	8 245.24	12 474.40	15 499.78	36 219.97
无限制 Unlimited	占比Percentage/%	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.12
轻度限制 Mild restriction	面积Area/hm²	4.77	249 877.93	653 570.37	3 797 871.97	2 386 778.24	7 088 103.28
轻度限制 Mild restriction	占比Percentage/%	0.00	0.82	2.14	12.42	7.81	23.19
中度限制 Moderate restriction	面积Area/hm²	374 958.10	346 395.53	6 791 130.23	6 319 315.51	7 939 244.07	21 771 043.44
中度限制 Moderate restriction	占比Percentage/%	1.23	1.13	22.22	20.67	25.97	71.22
重度限制 Severe restriction	面积Area/hm²	810.29	0.00	1 611 763.62	0.45	59 919.89	1 672 494.26
重度限制 Severe restriction	占比Percentage/%	0.00	0.00	5.27	0.00	0.20	5.47