Abstract:

China is one of the major importers of soybean in the world， with a high dependency on foreign sources exceeding， making the risks in soybean foreign trade increasingly prominent. The experiences of the United States， Brazil， and Argentina have demonstrated that the application of genetically modified soybeans and their supporting technologies effectively reduces variable costs， and increased the total factor productivity of soybeans. This paper analyzed the risks faced by China’s soybean industry， elaborated on the role of seed industry in industrial development，and simulated the impact of the industrial application of bio-breeding technology on the domestic soybean and trade based on a partial equilibrium model， in order to seeking a available path to reduce the risk of China’s soybean trade. The partial equilibrium simulation showed that promoting the industrialization of soybean bio-breeding could improve the total factor productivity of soybean production， thereby enhancing the market competitiveness of domestic soybeans. When the supply of domestic soybeans increased， the import quantity would also decrease accordingly， and the greater the substitution elasticity， the greater the reduction in import quantity， which could effectively alleviate the pressure of China’s dependence on foreign soybeans.

Key words: soybean, biological breeding, trade dependency, partial equilibrium

摘要：

中国是世界大豆主要进口国之一，对外贸易依存度较高，对外贸易风险日益凸显。美国、巴西、阿根廷的实践证明，转基因大豆及其配套技术的应用有效地降低了可变成本，并且提高了大豆的全要素生产率。梳理了我国大豆产业面临的风险，分析了种业对产业发展的作用，并基于局部均衡模型模拟生物育种对国内大豆市场和贸易的影响，以期探索降低中国大豆贸易风险的可行途径。通过局部均衡模拟发现，推进大豆生物育种产业化能够提高大豆生产的全要素生产率，从而提升国产大豆的市场竞争力。当国产大豆的供给量增加时，进口数量也会相应下降，随着替代弹性的增加，进口数量的减少幅度增大，这样就能够有效缓解中国大豆对外依赖的压力。

关键词: 大豆, 生物育种, 贸易依存度, 局部均衡模型