Abstract: In major grain sales regions of China, food security is still neglected, and this situation affects the food safety condition of China. This paper estimated the gap in balance between grain production and demand in major grain sales regions, and their gap degrees, also analyzed the main factors causing the gap by panel data model. The results showed that the gap between grain production and demand in major grain sales regions was becoming bigger and bigger, but the food gap degree in each grain sales regions was different. Beijing and Shanghai existed  extreme big grain gap, their average grain gap rates were over 70%; Tianjing and Guangdong province were bigger gap regions, their average grain gap rates were 40%~43%; Zhejiang province and Fujian province were big grain gap regions; Hainan province was general grain gap region. In major grain sales regions, changes in grain output, grain ration consumption quantity, indirect grain consumption quantity and urban population proportion had significant impact on the gap in balance between grain production  and demand. Increasing grain yield was beneficial for shrinking the grain gap in major grain sales regions. Population increasing, urbanization level up-grading, and indirect grain consumption increasing from consuming livestock, poultry and aquatic products and soybean oil, etc. could exacerbate the food gap. Therefore, this paper put forward relevant measures to facilitate food security status of major grain sales regions, hoping to provide references for realizing China’s food security strategy under the new situation.

Key words: major grain sales region, food security, gap in balance between grain supply and demand, grain consumption, influence factor

摘要： 我国粮食主销区的粮食安全基础脆弱，影响全国粮食安全状况。测算了我国粮食主销区的粮食产需平衡缺口及各主销区的粮食缺口程度，并采用面板数据模型分析了影响主销区粮食产需平衡缺口的主要因素。研究表明：主销区粮食产需平衡缺口越来越大，但各主销区粮食缺口程度有所不同。北京和上海为极大缺口区，平均粮食产需平衡缺口率超过70%；天津和广东为较大缺口区，平均粮食产需平衡缺口率为40%~43%；浙江和福建为大缺口区；海南省为一般缺口区。粮食产量、口粮消费量、间接粮食消费量和城镇人口比例的变化对主销区粮食产需平衡缺口变化具有显著影响。提高粮食产量有利于缩小主销区粮食缺口，主销区人口增长、城镇化水平提高、主销区居民对畜禽水产品和大豆油等的间接粮食消费增加会加剧粮食缺口扩大。鉴于此，提出促进粮食主销区粮食安全的相关措施，以期为实现新形势下国家粮食安全战略提供参考。

关键词: 粮食主销区, 粮食安全, 粮食产需平衡缺口, 粮食消费, 影响因素