Abstract: In order to evaluate the development of circular agriculture in Gansu Province, combining with the relevant concepts of ecological industry chain and value chain, using factor analysis and linear regression method, this paper analyzed the relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural environment recycling, and found their coupling trends. The results showed that agricultural resources in Gansu Province were linear trajectory distribution in the period of 1978-2012, agricultural economic growth was the distribution of the two curve trajectory. By coupling degree analysis of the agricultural resource & environment and agricultural economic growth, it could be found that the coupling degree was declining year by year during 1978-2009, which indicated that the influence of agricultural resource & environment on agricultural economic growth is decreasing annually.

Key words: factor analysis, regression analysis, coupling relationship, industrial chain, value chain

摘要： 为了评价甘肃省循环农业综合发展情况，结合生态产业链和生态价值链的相关概念，通过因子分析和线性回归等方法对农业资 源环境循环利用和农业经济增长之间的关系进行分析，得出两者的耦合变化态势。研究表明，1978-2012年间，甘肃省农业资 源呈线性轨迹分布，农业经济增长呈二次曲线轨迹分布。通过对农业资源环境与农业经济增长进行耦合分析，可以看出1978- 2012年间耦合度在逐年下降，说明农业资源环境对农业经济增长的影响力在逐年减弱。

关键词: 因子分析, 回归分析 , 耦合关系 , 产业链, 价值链