关键词: 干旱, 风险评估, 模型, 区划, 大豆

Abstract: Inner Mongolia is one of the main soybean producing areas in China, drought has been the main disaster in this region. Therefore, it has an important practical significance to explore the risk analysis and regionalization of soybean drought disaster in Inner Mongolia. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, the models of drought disaster risk regionalization were built  by using the data of 119 stations in Inner Mongolia including weather, geographic information and statistical data of society and economy, and combining with the data of Second China Land Census. And the risk regionalization map was drawn by GIS technology. In this paper, the results showed that in Inner Mongolia,  the high drought risk areas were mainly distributed in the west of Daxinganling mountain regions, and the western-west regions. The medium-risk areas for drought of soybean were mainly in the both sides of Daxinganlingmountain, some areas of south-east, and eastern-west regions. The low risk areas were located in the western of Hinggan League, the southwest of Tongliao City, most of Chifeng City and most of south-central region.  This paper put forward some suggestions for each risk area, and the accuracy of zoning results is high.It was proven that the divisional result had higher precision, which was consistent with the situation include soybean reduction rate and the losses of drought. Above results could reflect the whole situation in Inner Mongolia and provide references for drought disaster prevention of soybean, which provided reference for soybean drought disaster prevention.

Key words: drought, risk assessment, models, regionalization, soybean