Abstract: This paper analyzed the change law of grain production and put forward the development trend. Since the founding of new China from 1949, the grain production has increased in fluctuations and the yield per unit played an important role in it.  The variety structure has been continuously optimized according to market demand, and the main production area has been moving northward, and Heilongjiang has become a veritable Beidacang. The grain function has also changed from only satisfying food to feed industrial materials, and then to the international market method. The macro-management policy of food has changed from the tight management and control during the period of shortage to the tightly balanced management and control of the gradual marketization, and then to the strategic response to the international market. The grain production faces many problems and challenges such as resource shortage, low enthusiasm for growing grain, increased consumption and improved quality standards, and the rise of international protectionism. In  future, the strategic security status of grain production will further rise, the efficiency of resource utilization will gradually increase, the production of staple grains will develop steadily, the varieties of minor cereals will be diversified, and technology will remain the decisive factor for grain production in the future. Some suggestions to improve the level of food security in China were put forward, which included increasing the enthusiasm of farmers and local governments to grow grain, encouraging educated young people to go to the rural areas, improving the quality of farmers, encouraging enterprises to invest in the grain industry, and strengthening research, development and application of science and technology, and promoting green development of grain production.

Key words: grain production, grain function, policy, trend, countermeasure

摘要： 分析了我国粮食生产的变动规律，并对未来发展趋势提出展望。结果表明：新中国成立以来，我国粮食产量在波动中不断增长，单产发挥了重要作用。品种结构根据市场需求的变化而不断优化，主产区不断北移，黑龙江成为名副其实的北大仓。粮食功能从仅仅满足温饱的食品过度到工业原材料，再到国际市场的重要贸易手段。对粮食的宏观管理政策则从短缺时期的紧缺管控到逐步市场化的紧平衡管控,再到丰年有余面向国际市场的战略应对。同时，我国粮食生产仍然面临资源紧缺，种粮积极性低，消费增加而质量标准提高以及国际保护主义兴起等众多问题与挑战。未来，我国粮食生产的战略安全地位将进一步上升，资源利用效率逐步提高，主粮的生产将平稳发展，小杂粮品种将得以多样化发展，而技术仍将是未来粮食生产的决定性因素。今后，要提高我国粮食安全保障水平，需进一步提高农民和地方政府种粮积极性，提高农民素质，支持企业投资粮食产业，进一步加强粮食科技研究与开发应用，促进粮食生产的绿色发展。