中国海洋渔业生态安全时空演变与驱动因素分析

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2024.0329

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为推动海洋渔业高质量发展，基于CAS-DPSIR（complex adaptive system-driving forces， pressure， stage， impact， responses）模型构建海洋渔业生态安全评价指标体系，以灰色关联-TOPSIS（technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution）模型、泰尔指数和系统GMM（generalized method of moments）模型测度海洋渔业生态安全时空分异特征和显著驱动因素。结果表明，中国海洋渔业生态安全在研究时序内呈波动上升趋势，尤其是2016年后，除海南、江苏、上海、天津外，各地海洋渔业生态安全水平均保持较好发展形势。2010—2016年呈现较低或较高安全等级逐省交替分布格局，2018—2022年基本形成以江苏和上海为中点、南北高中间低的空间格局。中国海洋渔业生态安全水平整体提升的同时空间差异扩大，区内空间差异表现为环渤海>泛珠江三角>长三角。海洋渔业资源状态、捕捞能力、海洋环境规制和渔政管理能力是造成海洋渔业生态安全时空演变的显著驱动因素。未来应该从区域战略和要素2个层面缩小海洋渔业生态安全水平空间发展差异，以绿色发展为引领形成生态优先和经济持续的海洋渔业生产格局，并通过坚持依法治渔强化海洋渔政执法力度。

关键词: 海洋渔业生态安全, 时空演变, 驱动因素, 复杂适应系统, 系统GMM模型

Abstract:

In order to promote the high-quality development of marine fisheries， an evaluation index system of marine fishery ecological security was constructed based on the CAS-DPSIR （complex adaptive system-driving forces， pressure， stage， impact， responses） model， and the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics and significant driving factors of marine fishery ecological security were analyzed by the grey correlation-TOPSIS （technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution） model， Theil index and system GMM （generalized method of moments） model. The results showed that the marine fishery ecological security in China showed a fluctuating upward trend in the study time， especially after 2016， except Hainan， Jiangsu， Shanghai and Tianjin， the marine fishery ecological security level maintained a good development situation. From 2010 to 2016， there was an alternating distribution pattern of low or high safety grades by province， and from 2018 to 2022， a spatial pattern was basically formed with Jiangsu and Shanghai as the midpoint， and the north and south were high and the middle was low. With the overall improvement of the ecological security level of marine fisheries in China， the spatial differences were enlarged， and the spatial differences within the region were presented as Bohai Rim>Pan-Pearl River Delta>Yangtze River Delta. The status of marine fishery resources， fishing capacity， marine environmental regulation and fishery administration management capacity were significant driving factors for the spatiotemporal evolution of marine fishery ecological security. In the future， the spatial development difference of marine fishery ecological security level should be narrowed from 2 levels of regional strategies and factors， a marine fishery production pattern with ecological priority and economic sustainability should be formed under the guidance of green development， and the law enforcement of marine fishery administration should be strengthened by adhering to the rule of law.

Key words: marine fishery ecological security, space-time evolution, driving factors, complex adaptive system, system GMM model

中图分类号:

S937

崔凤, 刘荆州, 钱易鑫, 陈桂莹. 中国海洋渔业生态安全时空演变与驱动因素分析[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2025, 27(9): 224-239.

Feng CUI, Jingzhou LIU, Yixin QIAN, Guiying CHEN. Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Marine Fishery Ecological Security in China[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2025, 27(9): 224-239.

图/表 10

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年份 Year	总体泰尔指数General Theil Index	区域间差异 Inter-regional disparity	区域内差异Intra-regional disparity
年份 Year	总体泰尔指数General Theil Index	区域间差异 Inter-regional disparity	总体 General	环渤海 Bohai Rim region	长三角 Yangtze River Delta region	泛珠三角 Pan-Pearl River Delta region
2010	0.001 31	0.000 29	0.001 02	0.000 31	0.001 43	0.002 23
2011	0.001 71	0.000 53	0.001 18	0.001 96	0.000 82	0.000 67
2012	0.002 30	0.000 78	0.001 52	0.001 89	0.000 93	0.001 61
2013	0.000 49	0.000 02	0.000 47	0.000 64	0.000 41	0.000 36
2014	0.001 85	0.000 32	0.001 52	0.001 05	0.000 07	0.003 01
2015	0.002 10	0.000 85	0.001 25	0.001 44	0.001 00	0.001 24
2016	0.000 72	0.000 28	0.000 44	0.000 48	0.000 08	0.000 65
2017	0.002 05	0.000 09	0.001 96	0.003 77	0.000 31	0.001 42
2018	0.002 63	0.000 27	0.002 36	0.001 42	0.000 78	0.004 40
2019	0.002 91	0.000 34	0.002 57	0.004 06	0.002 27	0.002 16
2020	0.002 06	0.000 08	0.001 98	0.002 65	0.001 46	0.001 72
2021	0.002 45	0.000 31	0.002 14	0.003 11	0.003 08	0.001 32
2022	0.002 32	0.000 11	0.002 21	0.004 08	0.001 96	0.000 59

年份 Year	总体泰尔指数General Theil Index	区域间差异 Inter-regional disparity	区域内差异Intra-regional disparity
年份 Year	总体泰尔指数General Theil Index	区域间差异 Inter-regional disparity	总体 General	环渤海 Bohai Rim region	长三角 Yangtze River Delta region	泛珠三角 Pan-Pearl River Delta region
2010	0.001 31	0.000 29	0.001 02	0.000 31	0.001 43	0.002 23
2011	0.001 71	0.000 53	0.001 18	0.001 96	0.000 82	0.000 67
2012	0.002 30	0.000 78	0.001 52	0.001 89	0.000 93	0.001 61
2013	0.000 49	0.000 02	0.000 47	0.000 64	0.000 41	0.000 36
2014	0.001 85	0.000 32	0.001 52	0.001 05	0.000 07	0.003 01
2015	0.002 10	0.000 85	0.001 25	0.001 44	0.001 00	0.001 24
2016	0.000 72	0.000 28	0.000 44	0.000 48	0.000 08	0.000 65
2017	0.002 05	0.000 09	0.001 96	0.003 77	0.000 31	0.001 42
2018	0.002 63	0.000 27	0.002 36	0.001 42	0.000 78	0.004 40
2019	0.002 91	0.000 34	0.002 57	0.004 06	0.002 27	0.002 16
2020	0.002 06	0.000 08	0.001 98	0.002 65	0.001 46	0.001 72
2021	0.002 45	0.000 31	0.002 14	0.003 11	0.003 08	0.001 32
2022	0.002 32	0.000 11	0.002 21	0.004 08	0.001 96	0.000 59

变量 Variable	系数值Coefficient value	标准值 Standard value	Z值 Z value	P值 P value
海洋渔业生态安全水平 MFES	0.535 591	0.070 243	7.62	0.000^**
海洋渔业经济发展水平 MFEDL	0.004 414	0.003 046	1.45	0.147
海洋渔业资源状态 MFR	0.013 000	0.005 405	2.41	0.016^*
海洋环境负荷水平 MELL	0.003 674	0.002 989	-1.23	0.219
捕捞能力 FC	0.006 746	0.002 516	2.68	0.007^**
技术进步 TP	0.000 011	0.000 225	0.05	0.958
海洋环境规则 MER	0.721 371	0.194 434	3.71	0.000^**
渔政管理能力 FAMC	0.057 123	0.009 233	6.19	0.000^**

变量 Variable	系数值Coefficient value	标准值 Standard value	Z值 Z value	P值 P value
海洋渔业生态安全水平 MFES	0.535 591	0.070 243	7.62	0.000^**
海洋渔业经济发展水平 MFEDL	0.004 414	0.003 046	1.45	0.147
海洋渔业资源状态 MFR	0.013 000	0.005 405	2.41	0.016^*
海洋环境负荷水平 MELL	0.003 674	0.002 989	-1.23	0.219
捕捞能力 FC	0.006 746	0.002 516	2.68	0.007^**
技术进步 TP	0.000 011	0.000 225	0.05	0.958
海洋环境规则 MER	0.721 371	0.194 434	3.71	0.000^**
渔政管理能力 FAMC	0.057 123	0.009 233	6.19	0.000^**