关键词: 羊肉, B-N分解法, 周期, 价格冲击

Abstract: For a long time, mutton price fluctuates sharply under the effect of frequent external shocks, which is not conducive to the steady development of mutton sheep industry. Therefore, grasping the changes rule of mutton price and calculating the effect of the external impacts are advantageous to the regulation policy-making. The trend cycle of mutton price time series from June 1994 to March 2014 was decomposed based on the B-N decomposition method, the impact of prices fluctuation of other livestock and poultry meat was analyzed based on the VAR model, then the persistent effect of random impact was calculated. The results showed that mutton prices had deterministic trend of steady growth; the actual cyclical fluctuations were very violent, which could be divided into six periods generally. There was a long-term stability between the price of beef and mutton price, however, the pork and chicken price fluctuations had smaller influence on mutton price fluctuations. The cumulative effect of random shocks inhibited the rise of prices generally, but promoted mutton prices into the uplink channel quickly in the past two years.

Key words: mutton, B-N decomposition method, cycle, price shocks